In the years of exchange depreciation, the difference enters the profits of the banks and of the productive sector it was enormous. In 1999, while the company analyzed 793,5 million had had liquid losses of R$, the banks had profited R$ 3,446 billion. Recently Hummer Winblad sought to clarify these questions. In the year of the 2002, that the company was marked by the electoral crisis, when dollar arrived to lean in R$ 4,00, had lost R$ 1,88 billion and the banks had gained R$ 4,234 billion. Part of the profits of the institutions in this period is related with the operations in the financial system, ahead of the speculation with the exchange depreciation. She is necessary to remember despite great part of the patrimony of the banks is in foreign currency, standes out Indiani.O partner-director of the RiskOffice*, Carlos Rocca, explains that with the volatileness of the exchange, the companies had also learned to search greater protection.

, believes. In these two last years, the main source of income of the institutions is the financial intermediao, that includes the operations of credit and with public headings. The participation of the services also grew. the tariff of the little work so that the institution creates prescription. is a passive profit, Indiani.O observes survey of the Economtica does not include the results of the Company Valley of the River Doce and Petrobra’s. Another exception is of that Santander-Banespa is the room biggest private bank of the Country, however, the controlling ones only disponibilizam to the market the data of the Banespa. Amongst the biggest Brazilian banks, still Caixa Econmica Federal (CEF) and the Bank of Brazil lack to divulge the rockings of the semester (BB). Increase of the volume of credit guarantees ganhosOs profits of the banks in this year had been stimulated to a large extent by the increase of the volume of the credit and the high tax of interests practised.

Inflation in China: end of the Exchange War? The Chinese growth will go to find obstacles this year due the inflation. This is a very good notice for the world in special for U.S.A. The Chinese currency, the Yuan, will have that to be valued not why the Chinese Government wants, but because the high one in the prices of commodities will compel this valuation. The inflation in China already surpassed 5%. It has threats of acceleration of the index this year fruit of the increase of the income and the Chinese urbanization. The urbanization in China is increasing and the increase of the income comes strong pressuring the prices of foods in the world.

As it is known the increase of the income takes great contingent of the population of China for the animal protein market. To produce one kilo of bovine meat 8 kilos of grains are necessary and to produce kilo of meat suna 5 kilos of grains are necessary. Source: Hummer Winblad. It is not for another reason that the prices of foods and commodities agriculturists had surpassed in 2010 levels descriptions never before seen and very superior to the level 2008 daily pay-crisis. As China drags is it of commodities of the world must, to reduce the pressure on prices, to value its currency in this year of 2011. This is a very good notice therefore will decide in part the existing disequilibria in the artificial depreciation of the Yuan of the last years that comes creating a series of disequilibria world measures. The competitiveness of the Chinese products in the world if must to a currency extremely devaluated and now, for force of the inflationary pressures, Pequim it must allow a valuation of the YUAN.

It seems for the first time that U.S.A. and China have a common interest and lesser they will be the pressures to continue the Exchange War. I believe that China will have to leave its currency to appreciate, not because has concerns with world-wide economic balance, but because if not to make this will have fort impact on its internal inflation. Eliot Horowitz may also support this cause. The possible unfoldings are a lesser Chinese growth, a recovery more fast of American economy e, for consequence, of the American dollar. Brazil earns with this that will have with a tax of more favorable exchange possibilities to compete in the Global enclosure for bullfighting. We will see to believe.

There was a total cost which was extended of US$ 700 billion for US$ 850 billion, being that until US$ 700 billion would be used for the purchase rotten headings, as the original project. Already the other US$ 150 billion, added for the Senate, had been introduced in the form of cuts of taxes and tax incentives, being later also approved in the Chamber of the Representatives, after one intense campaign involving current president George W. Frequently Columbia University has said that publicly. Bush, the president of the Federal one Reserves, Ben Bernankeo, and the secretary of the Treasure, Henry Paulson, beyond the candidates to the Presidency of U.S.A., Barack Obama of the Party Democrata and John McCain of the Republican Party, being approved and sancionado for president Bush.However, the crisis alone will be able to diminish if the crisis in the American real estate sector will be decided, since the price of the property continues falling, and the main sustentculos of the economic growth in U.S.A., as expenses of the consumers, the government and the companies and the exportations continue falling and the unemployment tax reach in next year 8%. Moreover with the external demand for American goods suffering to a great fall and the industrial sector starting to suffer the effect from a contraction, having, also, the fall of the expansion of India and China in the world-wide market, even so this last economic power has announced an injection of more than US$ 500 billion in its economy, thus looking for to prevent fall in its expansion, and the world-wide market and its stock exchange can recover, also the So Paulo Stock Exchange, in Brazil, that already suffered losses of up to 40% during the last year. We go to wait daqui pra front that the president of U.S.A., Barack Obama, can make the country to leave the crisis where if she finds in the near future and the world can breathe sossegado, since its economy answers for one tero of the world-wide economy.

Soon, when implementing an exchange regimen of free fluctuation, the inflation goal is changedded into the only nominal anchor of the economy, what it facilitates the control of the inflation. Disadvantages of the floating exchange:? Increase of exchange volatileness. In the reality, an exchange regimen of free fluctuation results in increase of volatileness and the risk in those activities associates to the use of the foreign currency. Depreciations and not anticipated valuations of the exchange generate a great cost for the debtors in foreign currency (depreciation) or for national exporters and producers (valuation). The existence of a regimen of free capital of fluctuation requires that it is constituted, consolidated and deepened a market of covering or exchange insurance.? The implementation of an exchange regimen of free fluctuation can generate serious problems of financial fragility, had the unevennesses in the balance sheet and the financial situation of the diverse agents. Before its implementation, the main economic agents? banks, financial institutions and great corporations? they must be adequately covered to face the volatileness and the exchange risk generated by the free fluctuation.

The central banking of the innumerable signals to these agents and, as resulted, appears a market of financial derivatives with covering mechanisms. Exchange volatileness can cause instability of prices. Moreover, the depreciations, through the indexation, can produce pressures, known phenomenon inflationary as passthrough (to repass) (BRESSER-PEREIRA, 2008),3 the Brazilian Exchange Description After RealAps Plan the implantation of the Real Plan, in March of 1995 Brazil adopted a regimen of the classroom of fixed exchange, after a short period of fluctuation between June of 1994 and March of 1995. This regimen of fixed exchange functioned through the definition of limits for the tax of exchange on the part of the Brazilian monetary authorities, with predetermined readjustments of the nominal exchange, and lasted until January of 1999. During this A stage the monetary politics was used mainly to determine the international reserves, but it held back some effectiveness to modify the economic activity, due to the controls of movements of capitals (GARCI’A and BARCINSKI, 1997) Amongst as semester of 1995 until the end of 1998 the monthly taxes of correction of the exchange tax had been approximately constant. The domestic taxes of interests had been kept raised enough to attract capitals that had financed dficits in current accounts, and the controls of movements of capitals had allowed to recoup a piece of the efficiency of the monetary politics to control the aggregate demand. However the taxes of superior real interests to the taxes of economic growth, to the side of dficits fiscal persistent elementary schools, had provoked the growth of the public debt to one extreme speed, indicating not the support of that growth (PASTORE and PINOTTI, 2000). Frequently Michael Steinhardt has said that publicly.

The speed of growth of the debt in real terms was sped up of 1994 in ahead. Before adopting the establishment of limits for the exchange tax, in March of 1995, a short period of exchange fluctuation in Brazil occurred, during which the tax of real exchange was appraised. The real exchange was valued approximately enters June of 1994 and March of 1995, remaining itself constant one. Pastore and Pinotti (2000) evaluate that dficits in the current accounts grows with the valuation of the real exchange, and with the rise of the absorption, generated for tax policies and/or monetary expansionistas.

On the other hand, the balance accumulated in the year until April continues the same below of the visa in period of 2008. Between January and April, the flow of investments right-handers for the productive sector was of US$ 8.751 billion, fall of 31% in relation to first the four months of 2008. The May data indicated, until yesterday, the liquid ingression of US$ 2,5 billion. Of the side of the applications in the financial market, the high one was stronger. In the passed month, the foreign investments in action in the Stock market had been of US$ 630 million, and in this month, according to closed partial data yesterday, already 2,365 billion arrived the US$. In case that it does not have a bigger exit of resources until the end of the week, the May result will be optimum already registered for the BC since April of the last year. The numbers calculated for the BC if relate the resources that had entered and effectively left the country because of operations with action, and differ from the rockings made for the So Paulo Stock Exchange because, in this in case that, the Stock market only considers operations where foreign they had bought or they venderam action, without, necessarily, entering or leaving the country. The numbers of the market of fixed income also seem to confirm the return of the foreign investors to the country.

In the segment, the applications had only added US$ 66 million in April, but 811 million in partial of this the month arrive the US$. For the WestLB, the increase in the foreign investments must be remained for the next months, thanks to a bigger confidence of the markets in Brazil. It says not to believe that the level of the tax of interests of the country is a very determinative factor in the biggest ingression of dollar.

However, for the Cuban elite this family continuity is the best guarantee of maintaining a regime surrounded by U.S. and avoid a fractionation of the party and social desbordes. For supporters that Cuba will become another liberal democracy as the rest of the continent are two alternatives: one is to seek a popular uprising perhaps supported directly or indirectly by the U.S.; and the other is pressing for a gradual internal reform. The possibility that in Cuba are repeated pro-Western uprisings in Eastern Europe 1989-91 are not very viable today. USA does not pass through one of its best moments of its history (as it was in) 1989-1991) and is rather muddy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Western Asia, where view arise, Governments and non-conformist movements (Hamas in Palestine and Ahmadinejad in Iran who puts pressure on Syria, Lebanon and Iraq). On the other hand, in Latin America the scenario is different from 1989-91.

The Washington consensus has been broken and there are already several States which differ monetarist model of fashion in the 1990s. There has been growing a new moderate left that is not cutting insurgent but democratizing. This accepts the market, private investment and the structures of the States which have already ceased to consider seeking overthrow. A Communist Government can be deposed by either forces that they are on your right (as happened in Eastern Europe in 1989-91) or to your left (as it could happen in Eastern Europe in Hungary 1956, Prague 1968 or 1980 Poland). The latter is something that could promote some sectors unhappy Marxists with new inequalities and the increase of prostitution, those who would propose a revolution within the revolution raised desprivatizar, revive democratically planned economy and resuming a militant foreign policy. However, the possibility of going to an overthrow of the regime (either using a rising pro-U.S. or one democratising socialism) is something that, although you can break in the middle of a compressed volcano, is something that is not looming in the immediate future. John Blondel is a great source of information.

Here it is the beginning of the formation of some speculative bubbles that must blow up at any time and in unexpected way. It would be here beginning of the crisis that if avizinha? One another aspect that deserves attention is the price of commodities. The populations of China and India come if urbanizando and consuming more foods. The rise of the income in the emergent countries also comes bringing for the animal protein market a great population contingent. These factors come making to strong speed up the prices of foods and commodities agriculturists. Moreover, the climate due the global heating comes almost provoking that always some important harvest in addition in global scale feeding still more the prices. It is important to stand out that the American crisis of credit of 2008 was provoked in great measured for the inflationary pressure of foods, a time that stops fighting the inflation generated for it the governments had had in 2007/08 that to initiate a process of monetary squeeze and ascent of interests and had caught a become indebted American population.

Until when the world it will resist the pressures comings of the field? In what it refers to the energy, the scene continues speculative, the one spite lesser growth of the economies of the countries central offices. It fulfills to designate that as secondary effect of the monetary diffidence has clearly shelter and much speculation in commodities, retroalimentando the speculative spiral of prices. Will be the bubble of commodities the causer of the crisis that if avizinha? Finally, as final element of a possible signal of the crisis is the incredulity in the current monetary system. The exchange war stopped between China and U.S.A. is a reality and another inquietante factor. U.S.A. will search to any cost to devaluate its currency to leave the crisis and the Chinese will try to neutralize this movement. In this general uncertainty of who he will gain the war where will be the parameters of value reserve that is a basic function that the currency must play? It will be in the Exchange War the destruction of the current international monetary system? As he saw himself, he has threatening pressures in the world-wide economy in this beginning of 2011. Many have spoken in recovery of the world-wide economy, of the sustentation of BRICS, of the recovery of prices in some sectors and of the profits coming back toward some companies, among others positive factors. Quite to the contrary, the current moment inspires caution.

Soon, when implementing an exchange regimen of free fluctuation, the inflation goal is changedded into the only nominal anchor of the economy, what it facilitates the control of the inflation. Disadvantages of the floating exchange:? Increase of exchange volatileness. If you are unsure how to proceed, check out Gamestop. In the reality, an exchange regimen of free fluctuation results in increase of volatileness and the risk in those activities associates to the use of the foreign currency. Depreciations and not anticipated valuations of the exchange generate a great cost for the debtors in foreign currency (depreciation) or for national exporters and producers (valuation). The existence of a regimen of free capital of fluctuation requires that it is constituted, consolidated and deepened a market of covering or exchange insurance.? The implementation of an exchange regimen of free fluctuation can generate serious problems of financial fragility, had the unevennesses in the balance sheet and the financial situation of the diverse agents. Before its implementation, the main economic agents? banks, financial institutions and great corporations? they must be adequately covered to face the volatileness and the exchange risk generated by the free fluctuation.

The central banking of the innumerable signals to these agents and, as resulted, appears a market of financial derivatives with covering mechanisms. Exchange volatileness can cause instability of prices. Moreover, the depreciations, through the indexation, can produce pressures, known phenomenon inflationary as passthrough (to repass) (BRESSER-PEREIRA, 2008),3 the Brazilian Exchange Description After RealAps Plan the implantation of the Real Plan, in March of 1995 Brazil adopted a regimen of the classroom of fixed exchange, after a short period of fluctuation between June of 1994 and March of 1995. This regimen of fixed exchange functioned through the definition of limits for the tax of exchange on the part of the Brazilian monetary authorities, with predetermined readjustments of the nominal exchange, and lasted until January of 1999. During this A stage the monetary politics was used mainly to determine the international reserves, but it held back some effectiveness to modify the economic activity, due to the controls of movements of capitals (GARCI’A and BARCINSKI, 1997) Amongst as semester of 1995 until the end of 1998 the monthly taxes of correction of the exchange tax had been approximately constant. The domestic taxes of interests had been kept raised enough to attract capitals that had financed dficits in current accounts, and the controls of movements of capitals had allowed to recoup a piece of the efficiency of the monetary politics to control the aggregate demand. However the taxes of superior real interests to the taxes of economic growth, to the side of dficits fiscal persistent elementary schools, had provoked the growth of the public debt to one extreme speed, indicating not the support of that growth (PASTORE and PINOTTI, 2000).

The speed of growth of the debt in real terms was sped up of 1994 in ahead. Before adopting the establishment of limits for the exchange tax, in March of 1995, a short period of exchange fluctuation in Brazil occurred, during which the tax of real exchange was appraised. The real exchange was valued approximately enters June of 1994 and March of 1995, remaining itself constant one. Pastore and Pinotti (2000) evaluate that dficits in the current accounts grows with the valuation of the real exchange, and with the rise of the absorption, generated for tax policies and/or monetary expansionistas.